Smoke and Bird Updates

Photos R.W.

A brief smoke event with the wind travelling in the same direction as yesterday, but much less fierce, and picking up much less smoke. The Forest Service update tells us that the affected area has grown to 256 acres.

They also include an interesting explanation for yesterday’s photogenic event: “Fire activity was low to moderate throughout the day Saturday until about 5:30 p.m. when a storm cell brought much stronger winds out of the north, drastically increasing fire activity and pushing the fire to the south. The winds also helped create the very visible smoke column in the late afternoon. The blacklining that crews had worked on over the past several days held the fire in spite of the dramatic shift in wind direction and speed. Today, crews on scene continued to blackline the perimeter and look for spot fires. ”

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Flash Flood Watch from Now Until 9 p.m. on Saturday

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for a portion of north and central New Mexico including the Jemez. Slow moving thunderstorms are likely to dump up to 2 inches of rain with locally higher numbers possible, where storms revisit the same area. This could lead to localized flash flooding. Small hail and wind gusts to near 50 mph are possible with the stronger storms.

Locally heavy rainfall potential will increase and become more widespread late Sunday into Monday.

Fire?

Photo R.W. 

Looking west toward Guadalupe/Gilman Valley a fair amount of smoke rising in the air. It decreased as the evening went by, and there was no mention of it on any of the National Forest pages. And now just before 8:30 p.m., a few lonely little drops of rain have been observed hurling themselves to the ground, leaving, for a brief moment, tiny spots of moisture where they fell . Monsoon 2017 (not really).

Hazardous Weather Outlook for Jemez Area

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Update: This forecast was issued at about 2:00 p.m. and is no longer up. Also, the hazardous weather warning has been removed from the regular National Weather Service forecast site.

The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook for portions of north and central New Mexico that includes he Jemez area. Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain along the western portion of the Thompson Ridge burn scar. Up to 1.35 inches of rain has fallen in the last 30 minutes near Sulphur Springs. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. This may impact the Thompson Ridge burn scar including but not limited to Sulphur Creek Road, Sulphur Springs, Freelove Canyon, Mormon Canyon, Deer Canyon, Valles Caldera Preserve Headquarters, Redondo Creek, and Redondo Peak area.

Here It Comes

Thunder and lightening, and streams of water pouring down on the Nacimientos as seen from the Red Rocks.

About time.

Ice Blobs Fall on Parched Landscape

Welcome hail from heaven (the penny came from my pocket), followed by a brief shower, followed by an even better shower, brought some relief to the Red Rocks area of the Jemez, which has been missing most of the recent outbursts of rain.

Photo taken at great risk of being beaned by one of those. I hope everyone appreciates my courageous, self-sacrificing photo report.

Red Flag Warning Due to Strong Wind and Low Humidity

Another day, another flag.

The National Weather Service warns that a classic mid June break-down of the upper level ridge pattern is shaping up for today and tomorrow (whatever that means). Humidity is expected to be low and wind speeds high.

The red flag warning started  10 a.m. this morning and will continue  to 9  p.m.  Monday.

The forecast calls for the high pressure to continue to dominate the region today, bringing with it dry, windy, and unseasonably warm conditions for most of New Mexico. Temperatures will begin to cool slightly on Tuesday as an upper level weather system moves through. Temperatures are expected to return to above normal by Thursday and remain there through the remainder of the week.

Any kind of outdoor burning is not recommended. There is no moisture in the forecast for the Jemez area over the next few days.

Chilly Flurry

Not really a blizzard, just an odd event this morning, as temperatures dropped with first light until the grey murk twinkled with little snow flurries for a while. It’s all over now, with more and more blue sky and the sun drying the last wet patches on the ground.

 

A Rare Sight in the Valles Caldera

By R.W.

Image of the East Fork in the Valles Caldera from video by Ranger Christina of the Valles Caldera National Preserve.

 

Climate change skeptics must rejoice these days, since climate change data is no longer tumbling down upon us together with the early run off from the mountains. We can take the administration’s assertion that it is all a Chinese hoax, accept the New Alternative Truth and welcome the demise of methane, carbon dioxide and other pollutant regulations.

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National Weather Service Issues Winter Storm Warning for Today

 

The above represents a maybe/perhaps weather situation up in the high country this Monday. Photo taken some years ago.

 

Update: Jemez Day School is running on a two hour delay. The Valles Caldera is closed. No other closings or delays have been reported so far. Difficult driving conditions on N.M. Highway 4 from mile marker 19 to 46.

A Winter Storm watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for the Jemez area, lasting from this Sunday evening until 5 p.m. Tuesday. Chances of snowfall over the next couple of days range from 80 to 30 percent. At the lower elevations the temperatures are expected to be high enough for the snow to turn to rain during the daylight hours.

Up in the higher elevations conditions are expected to be severe. The Valle Caldera National Preserve issued this statement:

Main Entrance & Contact Station Closed February 13 Due to Severe Winter Conditions. For the safety of staff and visitors, the main entrance and contact station will be closed Monday, February 13th in anticipation of severe winter weather. The preserve will reopen Tuesday, February 14th at 9 AM if conditions allow.

Updates, including possible school closings, will follow in the morning.